Brought to you by Dr. Marci Rossell, Chief Economist
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With so much going on in the world it can be difficult to wade through all of the noise. That's why each month we will be delivering the economic insights you care about most, directly to your inbox! Brought to us by our partners at Leading Real Estate Companies of the World®.

We are at the cusp of a global easing cycle, with Central Banks considering their own best approach as inflation cools at varying degrees in nations around the world. According to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, inflation in the EU was down to 2.5% in June, a 0.1% decrease month over month. Despite modest signs of inflationary cooling, the European Central Bank is holding off on any near-term rate cuts prior to receiving additional confirmatory data that inflation will continue to move in the right direction. In contrast, the Swiss Bank is taking a lead position in the easing cycle, making a second rate cut in mid-June. Japan is holding steady for the time being in light of its weakening economy, as is the United Kingdom.

The threat to global democracy posed by Russia and China was a hot topic at the June G7 meetings in Italy, with discussions focused on tariffs, economic restrictions, and subsidies to combat geopolitical risks from the two giants. If carried out, these responses will inevitably raise prices across the board at a time when inflation is already elevated. Dr. Rossell notes that discussions at the G7 meetings reinforce the fact that we are entering a new era of global economic unraveling, with lines divided roughly between West and East.

According to data published June 12th by the U.S. Department of Labor, inflation is at 3.3%, with housing continuing to be a major contributor. Month over month, housing costs rose 0.4% in June. Expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled in light not only of ongoing sticky inflation but also due to the November presidential elections. Per Dr. Rossell, the Feds go to great pains to avoid appearing politically aligned and may err on the side of stasis immediately prior to the elections in order to maintain their politically neutral optics.

According to late June research published by, housing inventory continues to loosen, with on-market homes up 38.1% year-over-year. While any increase in inventory is great news for buyers, affordability challenges persist, as home prices continue to rise nationally and mortgage rates on 30-year fixed products continue to hover stubbornly at and above 7%.

The cost of homeowners insurance is on the rise across the U.S., exacerbating affordability challenges for prospective homeowners. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, insurance premiums are expected to rise 6% by the end of the year. Nonetheless, Dr. Rossell emphasizes that variants in homeowners insurance affordability vary widely by region and state and that homebuyers should continue to recognize the importance of having a skilled real estate professional by their side in order to navigate these – and other – tricky waters posed by the current housing ecosystem.
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Real Estate Blog Economic forecast for June 2024 for Cari Torres Real Estate Sonoma County Website